MOHAMMED SHAREEF and JANROJ YILMAZ KELES 20 June 2014
Opendemocracy - Free thinking for the world
https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/mohammed-shareef-janroj-yilmaz-keles/why-independent-kurdistan-makes-sense
Opendemocracy - Free thinking for the world
https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/mohammed-shareef-janroj-yilmaz-keles/why-independent-kurdistan-makes-sense
By invading Iraq and mismanaging the aftermath, the United States
precipitated Iraq's collapse as a unified state, but it did not cause it.
With the radical Islamic State in Iraq and the
Levant (ISIL) taking over huge swathes of Iraq's northern and western territory
from the Shi’a dominated government of Nouri al-Maliki, the territorial
integrity of Iraq is in question. These recent developments in Iraq are a clear
sign of a failed state on the brink of total collapse and a reality that many
in the west are still denying.
Partition works as a political solution for
Kurdistan, the Shiite south, and the Sunni Arab centre because it formalises
what has already taken place. Partition is the major reason Kurdistan is
stable.Throughout Iraq's tumultuous history the sectarian and ethnic
mentality in Baghdad has far superseded a common Iraqi national
identity.
Therefore the US and other western nations’
insistence on maintaining the status quo is no more than a fantasy. The reality
for Kurds and Shia/Sunni Arabs could be better described as a ‘forced
marriage’. International forces’ objection to the division of Iraq into three
states (Shia Arab, Sunni Arab and Kurdish states), is a futile attempt at squaring
a circle.
An independent Kurdish state is nothing new,
the Kurdistan region of Iraq has practiced de facto independence
since 1991 when Saddam Hussein's army was ejected from Kuwait. Kurdistan is
already self-sufficient with its own military (Peshmerga) and is developing its
own oil resources, these are all helpful factors towards its formal declaration
of independence.
Internally, the Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG) has pursued relatively ‘good governance’ and economically sound policies,
demonstrating that an independent Kurdistan will be a viable entity. The Kurds
to a large extent, although not flawless, have established a democratic
government of institutions. In addition to this, the Kurdish government's
well-trained Peshmerga forces have demonstrated commitment and competence at
protecting the security and stability of Kurdistan against any outside radical
Islamist onslaught.
Besides this, there is also
a political, cultural and emotional gulf between the Kurdish and Arab
populations in Iraq. The decline of the Arabic language among the post-1991
Kurdish generation shows that Kurds have neither a sense of belonging to Iraq,
nor a future vision within the Iraqi state. In 2005 an unofficial referendum
was held, asking the people of Iraqi Kurdistan whether they favour
remaining part of Iraq or an independent Kurdistan. The result
was an overwhelming majority of 98.8% favouring independence.
At the regional level, the KRG has demonstrated
friendly relations and good neighbourliness, mutual respect and cooperation. It
has proven that regional stability will be maintained and that an independent
entity would not upset regional states and threaten their territorial
integrity. To reassure them further, however, mutual interest treaties and the
establishment of excellent trade and diplomatic relations with regional states
must be given greater attention by the KRG. Regional stability and in particular
the stability of America's NATO ally Turkey are major considerations in
Washington when it comes to the Kurdish issue. The KRG has already contributed
positively and encouraged the decline of conflict between the Turkish
government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Moreover, the Kurdish political parties in
Turkey and Syria have long declared that they do not demand an independent
Kurdish state in Syria and Turkey and merely seek a peaceful solution for the
Kurdish question within their current national borders. Therefore, the concern
that the independence of the Kurdish region in Iraq will destabilise the region
is largely unfounded.
Iran is already the KRG's second largest trade
partner after Turkey. The trade turnover between the two governments exceeded 4
billion USD in 2013. As for Turkey, more than 70% of the overall Iraqi-Turkish
annual trade exchange of about 12 billion USD is between Turkey and the
Kurdistan Region. This exchange is anticipated to grow to 25 billion USD within
the next few years. There are currently about one thousand five hundred Turkish
companies active in the Kurdistan region. The relationship between the Turkish
government and KRG reached its peak when Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan invited
the president of the Kurdistan Region to the Kurdish populated Diyarbakir in
November 2013 where both leaders emphasised the relevance of peace and economic
development to the region. In an interview with the Kurdish Rudaw newspaper on
14 June 2014, the vice-president of the AKP, Hüseyin Çelik stated that “if
Iraq splits up, the Kurds have the right to self-determination" and
added that “Turkey has supported Iraqi Kurdish government until now and will
continue to do so.”
Considering that in a few years' time with
Turkey's EU accession, Kurdistan will represent the eastern border of the
European Union, it would simply make sense from a realist point of view that
Kurdistan provides a buffer to the EU from an emerging radical Sunni entity to
the south of Kurdistan's borders. Secondly, Kurdistan with its huge oil
reserves, ranked sixth at the global level, would be another major oil exporter
to western markets.
To sum up, conventional wisdom holds that
Iraq's breakup would be destabalising and therefore should be avoided at all
costs. Looking at Iraq's dismal history, it should be apparent that it is the
very effort to hold Iraq together that has been destabalising. Pursuit of
coerced unity has led to continuous violence, repression, dictatorship and
genocide. It is not possible over the long run to force people living in a
geographically defined area to remain part of a state against their will.
Iraq's Kurds will never reconcile to being part of Iraq. Under these
circumstances, a managed amicable divorce is in the best interests of Iraq, and
will contribute to greater stability in the region.
Iraq's current civil war is the messy end of a
country that never worked as a voluntary union and that brought misery to most
of its people most of the time. By invading Iraq and mismanaging the aftermath,
the United States precipitated Iraq's collapse as a unified state but did not
cause it. Partition – the Iraqi solution – has produced stability in most of
the country and for this reason should be accepted.
An independent Kurdistan should be achieved
through some sort of Velvet Divorce between Arab Iraq and the Kurdistan Region,
akin to the dissolution of the former Czechoslovakia in 1993. The UN, the EU,
the US and the Arab League should play a role in negotiating this secession.
The best way for that to happen is to have an agreement with the Iraqi
government. To achieve this, the issue of the disputed Kurdish territories
should be resolved because it is very difficult to achieve independence if you
do not know which territory you are going to control.
About the authors
Dr Mohammed Shareef is a fellow of the Royal Asiatic
Society (London). He has worked for the UN and is a lecturer in International
Relations at the University of Sulaimani in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. He
completed his PhD in International Relations at the University of Durham and
has an MSc in International Relations from the University of Bristol in the
United Kingdom. He is the author of the book The United States, Iraq
and the Kurds: Shock, Awe and Aftermath published by Routledge on 12
March 2014.
Dr Janroj Yilmaz Keles is a research fellow at Middlesex University,
with interests in migration, globalisation, the labour market, stateless
diaspora, transnational political activism, ethnicity, representation, media,
nationalism and ethno-nationalist conflict. His book Media, Diaspora
and Conflict: Nationalism and Identity amongst Turkish and Kurdish Migrants in
Europe is forthcoming.
Link to his articles at Opendemocracy
Link to his articles at Opendemocracy
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